Central bank minutes, mid-month surveys of business activity in major economies, a significant Fed speech and meeting at the end of the week, more earnings reports here and offshore, and continuing interest rate speculation are becoming tiresome.
Here in Australia, it’s the RBA August meeting minutes tomorrow and a busy week for corporates reporting their 30 June figures and commentaries.
The RBA minutes from its early August meeting will likely support the bank’s renewed hawkish stance on controlling inflation. In that respect, they are unlikely to advance the debate.
There are also mid-month surveys of manufacturing and services later in the week, which are likely to show weakness.
The 30 June full-year and half-year reports continue to accumulate this week, with dozens of ASX 200 companies reporting.
After last week’s full-year result from Commonwealth Bank and NAB’s latest update, there will be two reports from major banks: the third-quarter trading update from Westpac later today and the third-quarter capital and debt update from ANZ tomorrow.
In the US, it’s the minutes from the Fed’s meeting at the end of July and 1 August, followed by the annual Jackson Hole Fed symposium hosted by the Kansas City Fed, where Chair Jay Powell will speak on Friday, US time.
AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver says, “Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at the Jackson Hole central bankers’ gathering will likely take a dovish stance, preparing the way for a September rate cut.”
“He will also be watched for any signs of support for a bigger-than-normal cut as the focus shifts towards the employment side of the Fed’s mandate, but it’s doubtful he would support that at this stage.”
“The subject of the 2024 Jackson Hole symposium is ‘Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy’—a topic dear to the hearts of the RBA board.”
On the data front, existing and new home sales (Thursday and Friday) are likely to see modest gains after recent declines, and August business conditions PMIs (Thursday) are likely to soften.
US earnings season is almost over, with around 93% of S&P 500 companies having reported by Friday’s close.
According to FactSet, more than 78% have surpassed Wall Street’s expectations.
This week, reports are expected from big retailers like Target, Lowe’s, and Macy’s, as well as some tech companies like Zoom and Palo Alto Networks.
Canadian inflation data (Tuesday) for July is expected to edge lower to 2.4% year-over-year, with core measures also likely to fall slightly.
Mid-month surveys of manufacturing and services will be released in the US, Australia, Japan, parts of Asia, the UK, and much of Europe—most are expected to show moderate to soft results.
Japanese inflation data is expected later in the week as well.