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Deadline looms for TikTok US ban

TikTok has filed an emergency appeal to the US Supreme Court, seeking to delay a law that could force a nationwide ban of the app unless its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, divests its ownership before 19 January.

ByteDance has previously said it has no plans to do so.

The 19 January deadline would see TikTok removed from app stores and made inaccessible via US-based internet providers.

Background

TikTok was launched by ByteDance in 2017 as the international version of its Chinese app Douyin, which itself was launched in September 2016.

The platform has since skyrocketed in popularity, becoming a hub for entertainment, viral trends, and political discourse. ByteDance acquired the American lip-sync app Musical.ly in 2017 for nearly US$1bn. merging it into TikTok the following year.

By 2021, TikTok had surpassed 1 billion users worldwide.

Worried governments

India banned TikTok in 2020, and the European Union has raised privacy concerns.

Efforts to restrict TikTok in the US date back to President-elect Donald Trump’s first term. In 2020, Trump issued executive orders to force a divestiture of TikTok’s US operations, but the orders were challenged in court and ultimately revoked by President Joe Biden in 2021.

Under Biden, however, concerns over Chinese access to user data persisted. On 24 April 2024, Biden signed the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act. This legislation marked a shift from executive orders to formal congressional action. Under the act, social networking services (including websites and application software) can be banned within 270 to 360 days if they are determined by the president of the United States and relevant provisions to be a “foreign adversary controlled application”. The act explicitly applies to ByteDance and its subsidiaries—including TikTok—without the need for additional determination.

TikTok challenged the law, arguing that it constituted an unconstitutional restriction on free speech. However, on 6 December 2024, the DC Circuit Court of Appeals rejected TikTok’s claims. TikTok’s appeal to the Supreme Court follows that ruling, with content creators also filing a parallel appeal.

What’s the problem?

There are three key concerns:

  • Data privacy. Critics argue that TikTok collects excessive amounts of user data, such as location, browsing history and biometric data. While TikTok claims its data collection aligns with industry standards, some cybersecurity analysts believe the information could be accessible to the Chinese government under China’s 2017 National Intelligence Law, which requires Chinese companies to support government intelligence activities if requested.
  • National security. US officials have long feared TikTok could be a conduit for Chinese espionage or influence operations. Former President Trump’s executive orders stated TikTok’s data collection could be used for surveillance, blackmail or espionage. TikTok’s “Project Texas” initiative was intended to address these fears, storing US data on Oracle servers in Texas.
  • Content manipulation and misinformation. Critics claim TikTok’s recommendation algorithm could be exploited for influence operations. FBI Director Christopher Wray has warned that the Chinese government could use TikTok’s algorithm to manipulate content seen by Americans.

Some experts argue that these risks remain “theoretical” rather than proven. Notably, an investigation by the Georgia Institute of Technology found that TikTok’s data collection is similar to other social media platforms. However, evidence of ByteDance employees improperly accessing user data in December 2022 raised fresh alarms.

Market implications

ByteDance itself is a private company. But a ban could have a number of effects.

The “winners” from a ban would include Meta, Snap and Google. If TikTok’s 170 million US users are forced to leave the platform, other social media platforms could gain new users and advertising dollars. Meta’s Instagram Reels and YouTube’s Shorts could see a surge in user engagement.

The “losers” would include ByteDance and private equity investors. ByteDance’s valuation, which some have estimated at over US$200bn, could face a steep decline. Sequoia Capital and SoftBank could see their stakes lose value, particularly if TikTok is sold under pressure at a discount.

Content creators deriving publicity or direct benefits (via the TikTok Creator Rewards Program) would obviously be impacted.

The ban might also signal increased regulatory pressure on other Chinese-owned apps and tech companies operating in the US, like Alibaba and Tencent, and could prompt US allies to follow suit with their own legislative action.

What’s next?

In its appeal, TikTok argues that the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act violates the First Amendment rights of both the company and its 170 million US users. The company is asking the Supreme Court to block the law until it has a chance to review the constitutional claims on its normal docket. The case now goes to Chief Justice John Roberts, who can decide alone or refer it to the full court for a vote.

If the Supreme Court rejects TikTok’s appeal or declines to hear the case, the 19 January deadline will remain in place. President Biden has the option to grant TikTok a 90-day extension if ByteDance shows “meaningful progress” toward divestment, but there have been no signals he will do so.

TikTok has asked for a decision by 6 January to give app stores and internet providers time to comply if the law takes effect.

Trump has also weighed in on the matter, expressing support for TikTok, despite attempting to ban it himself. “I have a warm spot in my heart for TikTok,” he told a press conference, and hinted at possible intervention once he takes office on January 20.