ANZ’s economics team has reaffirmed its prediction that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will refrain from further interest rate cuts at its upcoming meeting next week. This forecast follows the release of the latest quarterly inflation data. ANZ is one of Australia’s largest banks, providing a range of financial services to retail, commercial, and institutional customers.
The bank’s analysts pointed to the increase in the Q3 CPI, with the trimmed mean rising by 1 per cent quarter-on-quarter, as a key factor influencing their expectation. In a note to clients, ANZ stated that it anticipates a unanimous decision from the RBA to maintain the current rate, despite the recent uptick in the unemployment rate.
Furthermore, ANZ anticipates that the central bank will characterize Australia’s employment market as remaining ‘a little tight’ in its post-meeting statement. This assessment reflects the bank’s view of the labour market conditions and their potential impact on monetary policy decisions.
ANZ suggests the RBA’s communication may take a hawkish tone in response to the Q3 trimmed mean exceeding the RBA’s August Statement on Monetary Policy forecast of 0.6 per cent. This indicates a potential shift towards a more cautious stance on future rate adjustments.