Tensions between the United States and China escalated on Monday as Chinese officials issued their third denial in five days that any tariff negotiations were taking place, directly contradicting repeated claims from President Donald Trump and senior U.S. officials that talks were ongoing.
At a press conference, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun stated plainly, “China and the U.S. are not engaged in any consultation or negotiation on tariffs,” adding that, to his knowledge, Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping have not recently communicated.
The firm rejection follows Trump’s recent assertions—made during an interview with Time magazine and repeated to reporters—that the two leaders had been in contact and that trade discussions were active. Over the past week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins have also suggested that dialogue was occurring, with Rollins claiming on Sunday that U.S. and Chinese officials were speaking “every day.”
However, Bessent later walked back expectations, telling ABC News that while he had interactions with Chinese counterparts at recent International Monetary Fund meetings, those conversations were limited to traditional economic issues like financial stability, not tariffs. “I don’t know if President Trump has spoken with President Xi,” Bessent admitted.
Contradictory signals fuel confusion
The starkly different accounts have left analysts and business leaders questioning the state of U.S.-China relations. Experts noted that China’s messaging, traditionally precise and tightly controlled, strongly suggests no direct negotiations are happening.
Xin Sun of King’s College London called it “highly unlikely” that Xi would have phoned Trump uninvited, citing political risks for the Chinese leader. Scott Kennedy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies similarly expressed skepticism, suggesting that any low-level communications were unlikely to amount to meaningful negotiations.
The confusion has only deepened uncertainty in global markets. Barclays analysts warned this week that the steep tariffs imposed by both sides amount to “a trade embargo,” predicting product shortages, higher prices, and possible store closures if tensions persist.
Escalating economic stakes
The U.S. has levied cumulative tariffs of up to 245% on Chinese goods, with China retaliating with tariffs of 125%. In response, China has also halted exports of critical rare earths to the U.S., raising concerns for American industries dependent on these materials, including defense, electronics, and electric vehicle manufacturing.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs estimate that Chinese exports to the U.S. could plunge by two-thirds if tariffs remain in place, endangering up to 16 million jobs in China’s manufacturing and retail sectors.
Nevertheless, both sides have offered faint hints of possible easing. China recently exempted certain U.S. goods from its tariffs, asking companies to identify critical imports needing relief. Trump, for his part, has floated the prospect that tariffs on China might soon “drop substantially,” though no formal framework has been announced.
Political posturing and the path forward
Despite official Chinese denials, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent continued to suggest on Monday that a “path” to an eventual agreement exists, placing the burden on China to de-escalate. “These high tariffs are unsustainable for China,” he said, noting that Chinese companies export five times more to the U.S. than vice versa.
Bessent emphasized that any de-escalation would not happen overnight, warning that trade deals could still take months to finalize. Meanwhile, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Rollins indicated that contingency plans are in place to support American farmers if export markets remain constrained.
For now, the lack of clarity on actual negotiations continues to weigh on businesses and markets alike. As one Chinese official bluntly put it:
“The U.S. should stop creating confusion.”