Happy new financial year in Australia, and happy new quarter elsewhere. There is more drama from the French elections on Sunday and the UK polls this Thursday.
Thursday is a holiday in the US—Independence Day—with all American markets closed.
There are the usual start-of-month data drops, especially US jobs figures on Friday, and anticipation for the start of the US earnings season next week and the Australian season later this month.
There are also start-of-month surveys of business activity from countries like the US, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Europe, and the UK. These are out from today through Thursday.
There are important car sales figures for June and the quarter and half-year for China’s EV sales, as well as Thursday’s deadline for the EU tariffs on imports of Chinese EVs.
In Australia, CoreLogic data first thing Monday morning is expected to show a 0.7% gain in home prices for June.
Wednesday sees the Australian Bureau of Statistics release May retail sales figures. The AMP’s chief economist, Shane Oliver, says they are likely to have increased by a modest 0.2% month on month after the 0.1% rise in a weak April.
Building approvals for May are also out on Wednesday and are expected to rise 2% after several months of weakness. The trade surplus for May, due Thursday, is expected to remain around $6.5 billion.
The minutes from the last RBA meeting (Tuesday) are likely to retain a hawkish tone, though some economists and business commentators may wrongly conflate last week’s monthly inflation indicator with the minutes.
China produced its first activity survey for June on Sunday. Another is due today, and later this month there will be monthly data on trade, inflation, production, and retail sales, as well as second-quarter GDP.
The quarterly Japanese Tankan business confidence survey for the second quarter will be released later today.
In the US, the focus will be on the June jobs data on Friday. Forecasts range from 175,000 to 190,000 new jobs after May’s unexpected 272,000 new positions. There is a possibility of revisions to the figures for April and May, as seen previously.
Unemployment is forecast to remain at 4%, and hourly wages growth is expected to slow to 4% from 4.1% in May.
US job vacancies for May will be released on Tuesday.
The minutes from the last Fed meeting will be out on Wednesday and will be closely watched for comments on the dot plot and estimates of interest rate cuts this year—currently just one.
The first round of the French elections will attract most interest in Europe. If the extreme right-wing performs well, shares, bonds, and currencies may be rattled. The second round will be next Sunday, July 7.
Eurozone inflation for June is out tomorrow and is likely to slow slightly to an annual 2.5%, with core inflation edging down to 2.8%. Unemployment for May, also out on Tuesday, is likely to remain unchanged at 6.4%.
The UK elections on Thursday may see a change in government—the first in 14 years. This transition is expected to be peaceful.